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Año 1, núm. 2
Julio diciembre, 2026
Recibido: 2026-03-07 Aceptado: 2026-05-05
Año 1, núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
ISSN-e: 3101-4895
Página 122
China, the war in ukraine, the Middle East and the Venezuelan
direction of the United States of America as signs of the
transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to
sustainable development, food security, and natural resources
DOI: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.21157903
Maj, Julian
1
Correo: rekto[email protected]
Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0007-5517-0217
WSHIU, Academy of Applied Sciences. Poznan, Poland
Krąkowska, Ewa
2
Correo: ewa.krakowska@wshiu.pl
Orcid: https://orcid.org/0009-0008-1064-0358
WSHIU, Academy of Applied Sciences. Poznan, Poland
Abstract
The article analyzes the transformation of the contemporary world order through
the prism of four interrelated crisis vectors: China’s structural rise as an
alternative center of economic, technological and infrastructural power; the war
in Ukraine as a direct challenge to international law, European security and
global food chains; the Middle East as a humanitarian, energy and ecological
frontier of modern geopolitics; and the Venezuelan direction of the United States
of America as a manifestation of the renewed struggle for political transition,
energy resources and influence in the Western Hemisphere. The aim of the study
is to determine how these processes indicate the transition toward a conflict-
ridden world order and how they generate threats to sustainable development,
food security and natural resources. Methodologically, the research is based on
qualitative documentary analysis, hermeneutic interpretation of political texts,
international reports and scientific literature, as well as comparative assessment
of four crisis cases. The proposed analytical approach combines geopolitical
criteria with sustainability-oriented criteria, including military intensity,
humanitarian gravity, pressure on sustainable development, food security impact,
natural resource pressure and global polarization. The results show that the
current crisis of world order cannot be reduced only to the weakening of
1
Gen. Dyw. Dr hab., Rector. WSHIU, Academy of Applied Sciences. Poznan, Poland
2
Head of Postgraduate Studies. WSHIU, Academy of Applied Sciences. Poznan, Poland
Sección: Artículo científico 2026, julio-diciembre, año 1, núm. 2, 122-157
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 123
international law or the redistribution of power among great actors. It also
involves the destabilization of agrifood systems, maritime routes, energy
markets, water access, land resources, mineral extraction, reconstruction capacity
and environmental resilience. The article argues that the world is entering a
phase of conflict polycentricity, in which several centers of power
simultaneously compete for influence while conflicts increasingly undermine the
material foundations of sustainable development.
Keywords: world order, China, war in Ukraine, Middle East, Venezuela,
sustainable development, food security, natural resources, conflict polycentricity,
energy security, international law.
China, la guerra en Ucrania, Oriente Medio y la dirección venezolana de los
Estados Unidos de América como señales de la transición hacia un orden
mundial plagado de conflictos y amenazas para el desarrollo sostenible, la
seguridad alimentaria y los recursos naturales
Resumen
El artículo analiza la transformación del orden mundial contemporáneo a través
de cuatro vectores de crisis interrelacionados: el ascenso estructural de China
como centro alternativo de poder económico, tecnológico e infraestructural; la
guerra en Ucrania como desafío directo al derecho internacional, a la seguridad
europea y a las cadenas alimentarias globales; Oriente Medio como frontera
humanitaria, energética y ecológica de la geopolítica moderna; y la dirección
venezolana de los Estados Unidos de América como manifestación de una
renovada lucha por la transición política, los recursos energéticos y la influencia
en el hemisferio occidental. El objetivo del estudio es determinar cómo estos
procesos indican la transición hacia un orden mundial plagado de conflictos y
cómo generan amenazas para el desarrollo sostenible, la seguridad alimentaria y
los recursos naturales. Metodológicamente, la investigación se basa en el análisis
documental cualitativo, la interpretación hermenéutica de textos políticos,
informes internacionales y literatura científica, así como en una evaluación
comparativa de cuatro casos de crisis. El enfoque analítico propuesto combina
criterios geopolíticos con criterios orientados a la sostenibilidad, incluida la
intensidad militar, la gravedad humanitaria, la presión sobre el desarrollo
sostenible, el impacto en la seguridad alimentaria, la presión sobre los recursos
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 124
naturales y la polarización global. Los resultados muestran que la crisis actual
del orden mundial no puede reducirse únicamente al debilitamiento del derecho
internacional o a la redistribución del poder entre los grandes actores. También
implica la desestabilización de los sistemas agroalimentarios, las rutas
marítimas, los mercados energéticos, el acceso al agua, los recursos de la tierra,
la extracción mineral, la capacidad de reconstrucción y la resiliencia ambiental.
El artículo sostiene que el mundo está entrando en una fase de policentrismo
conflictivo, en la que varios centros de poder compiten simultáneamente por
influencia mientras los conflictos socavan cada vez más las bases materiales del
desarrollo sostenible.
Palabras clave: orden mundial, China, guerra en Ucrania, Oriente Medio,
Venezuela, desarrollo sostenible, seguridad alimentaria, recursos naturales,
policentrismo conflictive, seguridad energética, derecho internacional.
Introduction
The beginning of the 21st century bears less and less resemblance to the
era that was described at the turn of the 1990s and 2000s as the triumph of the
liberal international order. After the end of the Cold War, global politics seemed
to be moving in the direction of the gradual expansion of international law, open
trade, democratic legitimacy, multilateral governance, sustainable development,
resource cooperation and the gradual stabilization of global food systems.
However, history has turned out to be less straightforward.
The rise of China, the return of large-scale wars in Europe and the Middle
East, a new wave of militarization, the weakening of universal norms, and
external intervention in the political processes of strategic regions indicate not
the end of history but the return of history in its most acute form. At the same
time, these processes demonstrate that the crisis of world order is no longer
limited to diplomacy, military alliances or the balance of power. It increasingly
affects the material foundations of human security, including access to food,
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 125
water, energy, agricultural land, transport corridors, critical infrastructure and
natural resources.
The peculiarity of the current moment is that the crisis of the world order
does not have a single center. It consists of several interconnected directions.
China challenges not only the economic dominance of the West, but also the
very philosophy of liberal universalism, while simultaneously shaping new
infrastructural, technological and resource dependencies through trade routes,
ports, energy projects, mineral supply chains and investment in the Global South.
The war in Ukraine has raised the question of whether international law
can actually restrain imperial violence if the aggressor has significant military,
nuclear and resource potential. It has also shown that modern war can become a
direct threat to sustainable development, because the destruction of energy
facilities, ports, agricultural infrastructure, housing, water systems and transport
networks affects not only one country, but also global food markets and long-
term reconstruction capacity.
The Middle East demonstrates the limit of humanitarian rhetoric, when the
civilian population finds itself between military necessity, religious-political
identities, energy interests, water scarcity, disrupted food access and the
weakness of international coercive mechanisms. Venezuela, in turn, returns to
the political debate the question of whether the external presence of a great
power can be justified by the need for political transition, stabilization of the
energy market, access to oil and mineral resources or the fight against
authoritarian rule. In this case, we are talking not only about Latin America. It is
about the broader question of whether the post-hegemonic world is able to
maintain the line between supporting change and imposing change, as well as
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 126
between protecting international stability and redistributing control over strategic
natural resources. In our view, these processes should not be viewed as separate
regional crises. They are components of a single historical fracture within which
the world is moving from an order based on the dominance of a single center of
power to a conflictual polycentricity. Such polycentricity does not mean
automatic equilibrium. On the contrary, it creates a situation in which each major
actor claims its own interpretation of security, justice, development, legitimacy
and control over the resources necessary for survival and growth.
In this sense, modern geopolitics is once again acquiring a philosophical
content. It is not just about territories, resources, armies, or sanctions. It is about
the dispute over what the world should be like, who has the right to set the rules,
whether there is a universal morality in international politics, and whether
humanitarian rhetoric can remain convincing when the great powers themselves
violate the principles they proclaim. However, in the conditions of the new
conflict-ridden world order, this dispute also concerns food security, energy
security, water security, environmental resilience, the protection of agricultural
production and the governance of natural resources.
The purpose of the study is to provide a historical, geopolitical,
philosophical and sustainability-oriented understanding of the transformation of
the world order through the analysis of four crisis vectors related to China, the
war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela. The article aims to show that
these vectors are not only signs of geopolitical fragmentation, but also sources of
threats to sustainable development, food security and natural resources.
Achieving this goal requires not only describing the facts, but also
reconstructing the meanings that political actors, international organizations,
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
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scholars, and the media give to these facts, as well as identifying how these
crises affect agrifood systems, energy markets, maritime logistics, water access,
land resources, environmental security and the long-term ability of societies to
recover after shocks.
The first research question concerns China. Is China’s current rise merely
the economic rise of a new great power, or does it signify the emergence of an
alternative philosophy of world order based on sovereignty, infrastructural
dependence, state capitalism, political pluralism without liberal universality,
resource diplomacy and the strategic control of supply chains?
The second research question concerns wars. Can the war in Ukraine and
the war in the Middle East be seen as two different but interconnected tests of
the ability of international law to protect civilians, territorial integrity,
humanitarian standards, food systems, energy infrastructure, water access and
the ecological foundations of sustainable development?
The third research question concerns the United States of America and
Venezuela. Is the increased American presence in Venezuela a manifestation of
stabilization policy, or does it indicate a return to the practice of forcibly shaping
political transitions in strategically important regions, where political influence is
inseparable from oil, gas, mineral resources and control over regional security?
The fourth research question concerns the general trajectory of the world
order. Do China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and the Venezuelan
direction of the United States of America collectively indicate the transition
toward a conflict-ridden world order in which geopolitical rivalry increasingly
threatens sustainable development, food security and natural resources?
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 128
1. Theoretical and conceptual foundations
The current scholarly debate on world order is evolving between several
major approaches. The first approach assumes that the liberal order, despite the
crisis, retains normative appeal, as it links security, economic openness, human
rights, and international organizations. Ikenberry (2020) thinks along these lines,
viewing liberal internationalism as a long historical tradition that is experiencing
a crisis but not entirely losing its capacity for renewal. From this perspective, the
weakening of the liberal order is dangerous not only because it reduces the
authority of international law, but also because it undermines the ability of states
to coordinate responses to climate risks, food shortages, energy instability, water
scarcity and ecological degradation.
The second approach, represented by the realist tradition, emphasizes that
the liberal order was a historically brief exception, dependent on the
preeminence of the United States of America after the Cold War. Mearsheimer
(2019) argues that the liberal international order had internal limitations, as it
attempted to disseminate universal political principles in a world where states
remain driven by national interests, security fears, and the balance of power. For
this article, realism is important because it explains why food, energy, minerals,
ports, maritime routes, agricultural land and water resources increasingly
become not neutral economic categories, but instruments of power, coercion and
strategic dependence.
Between these two approaches lies the concept of a multiplex world,
developed by Acharya (2017). In this vision, world order is no longer reduced to
a single center, a single development model, or a single source of legitimacy. On
the contrary, it is shaped by the coexistence of several regional orders, several
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
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civilizational notions, and several modernization models. Such an approach is
particularly relevant for the analysis of sustainable development, because
different centers of power promote different understandings of development,
resource governance, food security, infrastructure financing and environmental
responsibility.
It is within this theoretical framework that China should be considered. Its
rise cannot be explained solely by gross domestic product, exports, or military
spending. China offers an alternative vocabulary of international politics. Its
central concepts are sovereignty, development, infrastructure, noninterference,
stability, and mutual benefit. At the same time, critics of this approach point out
that the language of development may conceal new asymmetries of dependence,
debt pressures, environmental risks, and Beijing’s growing political influence in
the countries of the Global South.
The war in Ukraine takes the discussion of world order from the theoretical
plane to the space of direct historical testing. If territorial integrity and the
prohibition of aggressive war are the basic principles of post-war international
law, then the inability to quickly stop aggression means a deep crisis not only of
security policy, but also of the very idea of a legal order between states. At the
same time, the war in Ukraine demonstrates that aggression against a sovereign
state can generate systemic threats to sustainable development, including
destruction of energy infrastructure, damage to agricultural production,
disruption of Black Sea logistics, contamination of land resources, pressure on
reconstruction capacity and destabilization of global food markets.
The Middle East adds another level to this crisis. It is a situation in which a
humanitarian catastrophe, religious history, colonial heritage, regional ambitions,
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
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energy security and global diplomacy merge into one complex knot. Here
international law does not disappear completely, but appears more as a language
of accusations than as an effective mechanism for protecting civilians (Table 1).
Table 1. Theoretical approaches to the interpretation of the contemporary world order
Approach
Explanatory value for this article
Liberal
internationalism
Helps explain why contemporary wars
and external interventions are
perceived as a crisis of the normative
order and as a threat to coordinated
responses to food insecurity,
environmental degradation and
resource scarcity
Realism
Explains the return of militarization,
spheres of influence and competition
between great powers, including
competition for energy, food systems,
maritime routes, minerals and
strategic infrastructure
Multiplex world
Allows China, the Middle East,
Ukraine and Venezuela to be read as
parts of a single transition toward
polycentricity, where different actors
propose different models of
development, resource governance
and food security
Critical
geopolitics
Makes it possible to analyze not only
events, but also the meanings created
around them, including narratives
about development, humanitarian
responsibility, energy security, food
access and natural resources
Venezuela is important because it brings back the question of the Western
Hemisphere. In the 20th century, Latin America was often a space of external
influence, experiments with political regimes, sanctions pressure and the struggle
for energy resources. In the 21st century. This trajectory has not disappeared, but
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 131
has only acquired a new meaning, in which democratic rhetoric is intertwined
with energy, migration, security, drug policy, and regional balance.
2. Methodology
Methodologically, the article is based on qualitative documentary research,
hermeneutic analysis and comparative geopolitical assessment. The hermeneutic
approach is used because modern international crises exist not only as facts, but
also as texts. They are presented in the speeches of leaders, resolutions,
international reports, analytical documents, media images and scientific
concepts. Therefore, the task of the researcher is not only to collect data, but also
to understand what meanings various political actors give to these data. In the
context of this article, special attention is also paid to the way in which political
actors interpret access to food, energy, water, agricultural land, minerals,
maritime routes and critical infrastructure as elements of security, influence and
development.
The documentary corpus of the study includes three groups of sources. The
first group includes scientific works on the theory of international order, realism,
liberal internationalism, multipolarity and the rise of China. The second group
includes reports of international organizations, in particular the Office of the
United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, the Office of the United
Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, the World Bank, UNICEF,
OCHA, UNCTAD and SIPRI. The third group includes analytical materials from
leading research centers on Venezuela, the American presence in the region, and
the Western Hemisphere crisis. China’s infrastructural influence, the Middle
East, energy routes and strategic resource competition. The fourth group includes
international media reports and official statements that make it possible to clarify
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 132
the chronology of recent events and verify how crises are publicly framed in
connection with sustainable development, food security and natural resources.
The research procedure involved three stages. The first stage involved
contextual reading of the sources, during which the main facts, actors, and
historical circumstances of each case were identified. The second stage involved
philosophical reading aimed at identifying basic concepts such as sovereignty,
legitimacy, power, order, justice, and humanitarian responsibility. The third
stage involved a comparative assessment of the four crisis areas using five
criteria (Table 2).
Table 2. Documentary corpus and analytical purpose of source groups
Source group
Type of materials
Analytical purpose
Scholarly sources
Monographs and articles on the
theory of international relations,
world order, realism, liberalism
and multipolarity.
Formation of the theoretical
foundation, definition of
concepts and reconstruction
of the academic debate.
International reports
UNHCR, OHCHR, OCHA,
UNICEF, World Bank, SIPRI,
UNCTAD and other
organizations.
Factual basis regarding
casualties, displacement,
military expenditure,
humanitarian needs and
economic losses, food
insecurity, environmental
degradation, energy
instability and natural-
resource risks
Analytical centers
Council on Foreign Relations,
Brookings Institution, AidData
and other specialized institutions.
Interpretation of the policies
of great powers, crisis
dynamics and regional
consequences.
Media sources
Reports by international agencies
on recent developments and
official statements.
Clarification of the
chronology of events and
verification of current
political context.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
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The methodological limitation of the study is that it does not claim to be a
definitive quantitative model of world politics. The proposed index is an
analytical tool that helps to systematize comparisons, but does not replace a full-
fledged econometric study. At the same time, it allows us to show which
components form the tension in various regional crises and how these
components are connected with threats to sustainable development, food security
and natural resources. Thus, the index should be understood as an interpretive
comparative instrument that combines geopolitical analysis with the assessment
of conflict-induced sustainability risks.
3. China and its new position in the world order
China’s presence in the modern world is dual in nature. On the one hand,
China is deeply integrated into the global economy, dependent on trade,
technology, raw materials, sea routes and external markets. On the other hand, it
is this integration that Beijing is using to gradually shape an alternative
geoeconomic architecture. China is not openly destroying globalization. It is
trying to change its center of gravity.
According to the World Bank, China’s growth in 2025 was estimated at
4.9%, in 2026 it was predicted to slow down to 4.4%, and in 2027 to 4.2%. Such
a slowdown does not mean a loss of global importance. On the contrary, it shows
a transition from a phase of rapid industrial expansion to a phase of structural
competition, in which China retains its importance not only as a producer, but
also as a lender, investor, technological actor and diplomatic mediator (World
Bank, 2026).
Of particular importance is the role of Chinese development finance.
AidData estimates that between 2000 and 2021, China supported 20,985 projects
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
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in 165 low- and middle-income countries, worth US$1.34 trillion. This means
that Chinese geopolitics is not limited to military power. It operates through
ports, railways, power plants, roads, logistics hubs, telecommunications and
industrial zones (AidData, 2023). These projects are also directly related to the
material foundations of sustainable development, because they influence
transport accessibility, energy production, agricultural exports, urbanization,
extraction of natural resources and the integration of developing countries into
global trade. At the same time, infrastructure can become not only a
development instrument, but also a mechanism of long-term dependence if
financial obligations, environmental risks and political influence are not
balanced by transparency and institutional accountability.
The Chinese model is attractive to some countries in the Global South
because it does not impose the same political conditions as Western creditors or
donors. At the same time, this very feature creates a philosophical problem. If
development is separated from human rights, political accountability and
transparency, then it can turn into a technocratic form of dependency. The state
receives infrastructure, but at the same time it is caught in a complex web of
financial, technological and diplomatic obligations. In such conditions,
sustainable development may become formally accelerated but substantively
vulnerable, especially when large infrastructure projects increase debt exposure,
put pressure on ecosystems, reshape land use or strengthen external control over
strategic resources.
China does not necessarily seek to create a complete replica of American
hegemony. Its strategy is more subtle. It is to create a world in which Western
rules are no longer the sole language of international legitimacy. In such a world,
one can talk about human rights, but one can also talk about non-interference.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
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One can talk about democracy, but one can also talk about stability. One can talk
about open markets, but one can also talk about state planning and infrastructure
development.
That is why China is emerging not only as a geopolitical competitor but as
a philosophical challenge. It is forcing the West to answer the question of
whether the liberal order was truly universal or whether it merely reflected the
historical superiority of Western states after the Cold War. The answer to this
question cannot be purely economic. It concerns the very way of thinking about
order, progress, and political modernization. It also concerns the question of who
has the authority to define development priorities, environmental responsibility,
resource sovereignty and the relationship between economic growth and human
security.
The Chinese direction also demonstrates an important shift in the nature of
power. In classical geopolitics, power was understood mainly as territorial
control, military presence, and the ability to coerce. In today’s external
environment, power is often expressed through dependence on logistical routes,
technological standards, credit instruments, and access to markets. Thus,
infrastructure ceases to be a mere material object and becomes a language of
political influence. In the new conflict-ridden world order, this language
increasingly includes access to ports, fertilizers, rare earth elements, oil and gas
routes, grain logistics, digital infrastructure and industrial technologies.
Therefore, China’s rise should be interpreted as a transformation of power from
direct control over territory to indirect control over the systems that sustain
production, trade, food security and resource circulation (Table 3).
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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Table 3. China as a structural actor of the new world order
Component of
influence
Concrete manifestation
Geopolitical significance
Economy
The second-largest economy in
the world and a key production
center.
Shifts the center of global
production toward Asia and
strengthens dependence on
Chinese supply chains.
Infrastructure
Loans, ports, railways, energy
facilities, logistics corridors and
telecommunications networks.
Creates long-term channels of
influence through material
dependence.
Diplomacy
Activity in the Global South,
mediation initiatives and
participation in multilateral
formats.
Weakens the monopoly of the
West on defining rules and
diplomatic priorities.
Military power
Growing military expenditure,
naval development and army
modernization.
Increases pressure in the Indo-
Pacific region and around
Taiwan.
Ideology
Emphasis on sovereignty, stability
and development without liberal
democratization.
Offers an alternative to the
universalist political model of
the West.
Natural resources
and food systems
Access to critical minerals, energy
projects, agricultural cooperation,
port infrastructure and logistics
hubs
Transforms resource
governance and food security
into instruments of strategic
influence in the Global South
and beyond
At the same time, China’s rise is not a continuous line of success.
Demographic aging, local government debt, real estate market problems,
technological constraints, sanctions pressure, and tensions in the Indo-Pacific
region pose a number of internal and external challenges for Beijing. That is why
China cannot be described as a future undisputed hegemon. It is more
appropriate to speak of it as a structural competitor, capable of changing the
rules even without full control over the system. Its influence lies precisely in the
fact that it can reshape the conditions under which other countries build
infrastructure, secure food supplies, access energy, extract resources, participate
in trade and define their own development strategies. Therefore, China’s new
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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position in the world order is not only a question of power redistribution, but
also a question of who will shape the material foundations of sustainable
development in the coming decades.
4. The war in Ukraine as a crisis of international law
The war in Ukraine is one of the most important historical tests of the
international order since 1945. Its significance goes far beyond regional security.
It is about whether the prohibition of aggressive war has real force if it is
violated by a state with a large military potential, a permanent seat on the UN
Security Council and significant resources. At the same time, this war is also a
test of the ability of the international system to protect the material foundations
of sustainable development, including energy infrastructure, agricultural
production, food exports, transport corridors, land resources, housing, water
systems and long-term reconstruction capacity.
The humanitarian consequences of the war indicate the systemic nature of
the destruction. According to UNHCR, as of September 2025, 5.75 million
refugees from Ukraine were registered in the world, including 5.2 million in
Europe, and 3.75 million people remained internally displaced (UNHCR, 2026).
These figures reflect not only the scale of population displacement, but also the
long-term disruption of social ties, educational trajectories, the labor market and
demographic structure. They also show that war undermines sustainable
development not only through direct physical destruction, but also through the
loss of human capital, demographic imbalance, pressure on host societies and the
weakening of local communities that are necessary for post-war recovery.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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The Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights
reported that at least 238 civilians were killed and 1,404 civilians injured in April
2026, the highest monthly civilian casualties since July 2025. The report also
recorded an 18% increase compared to April 2025 and a 13% increase compared
to March 2026 (OHCHR, 2026). Civilian casualties in this context are not only a
humanitarian tragedy. They also indicate the destruction of the social basis of
development, because every attack on residential areas, medical facilities,
educational institutions, energy systems or transport infrastructure reduces the
ability of society to maintain normal economic and social life.
The economic component is no less important. According to the World
Bank, the Government of Ukraine, the European Commission and the UN, as of
31 December 2025, the total cost of recovery and reconstruction of Ukraine was
estimated at almost US$588 billion for the next decade, while direct losses
exceeded US$195 billion. Housing, transport and energy were particularly
affected (World Bank, 2026). These figures reveal the war as a crisis of
sustainable development, because reconstruction is not limited to the restoration
of buildings or roads. It requires the rebuilding of energy systems, logistics
corridors, agricultural capacities, water supply, environmental safety, industrial
production and institutional trust. Therefore, the economic losses caused by the
war should be interpreted not only as financial damage, but also as a long-term
weakening of the development trajectory of the state.
A separate dimension of the war is its impact on food security and natural
resources. Ukraine has traditionally played an important role in global grain and
agricultural markets, while the destruction of port infrastructure, attacks on
energy facilities, mining of territories, contamination of land, disruption of
agricultural production and pressure on Black Sea logistics create risks that go
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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far beyond national borders. In this sense, the war shows that food security is not
only an agricultural issue, but also a geopolitical issue. Access to ports, railways,
storage facilities, fuel, electricity and safe agricultural land becomes a condition
for the stability of both domestic and global food systems.
The philosophical significance of this war lies in the fact that it destroys
the illusion of automatic progress. After World War II, international law
developed as a response to the experience of catastrophe. It was not only
supposed to regulate the behavior of states, but also to prevent a return to the
imperial trajectory. However, the aggression against Ukraine showed that law
without force is not always able to stop force.
At the same time, the war revealed the opposite process. It demonstrated
that even in conditions of large-scale violence, international law does not
disappear. It remains the language of diplomacy, sanctions, investigations,
compensation, international solidarity and future responsibility. Therefore, this is
not so much the death of international law as a crisis of its coercive capacity.
The militarization of Europe is also gaining special significance. SIPRI
recorded that in 2025, global military spending reached 2,887 billion US dollars,
and spending in Europe increased by 14%. The war in Ukraine has become one
of the key factors in this process. Europe is thus returning to a historical state in
which security once again requires not only norms but also defensive capabilities
(SIPRI, 2026).
In humanitarian terms, this war also demonstrates that the concepts of
victory, peace and reconstruction have different horizons. Military victory may
mean the liberation of territories, but social reconstruction requires the return of
people, the reconstruction of cities, overcoming trauma, restoring trust in state
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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authorities and creating conditions for economic life. Political peace can be
concluded faster than human security is restored. This is why the post-war
reconstruction of Ukraine will be not only a technical project, but also a long-
term moral task (Table 4).
Table 4. The war in Ukraine as a test of the international order
Sphere of impact
Factual manifestation
Significance for world order
International law
Violation of territorial integrity
and the principle of non-use of
force.
Undermines the foundations
of the post-war security
system.
Humanitarian sphere
Civilian casualties, population
displacement and destruction of
housing.
Reveals the crisis of
mechanisms designed to
protect civilian populations.
Economy
Recovery needs estimated at
almost 588 billion US dollars over
a decade.
Transforms war into a long-
term financial and
institutional challenge.
European security
Growth of defense expenditure,
rearmament and reassessment of
threats.
Returns militarization to the
center of European politics.
Food security
Strikes against port, energy and
agricultural infrastructure.
Exposes the vulnerability of
grain markets and global
logistics.
The war also changed the European concept of strategic autonomy. Until
2022, it was often perceived as a debate about the balance between the United
States of America and the European Union. After a full-scale invasion, the issue
became much more concrete. It concerns ammunition stocks, production
capacity, air defense, energy sustainability, cybersecurity, and the ability to
withstand a protracted war of attrition.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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5. The Middle East as a humanitarian frontier of modern
geopolitics
The Middle East is a space where history, religion, colonial heritage,
national projects, energy and geopolitics cannot be separated. The war in this
region is not just a military clash. It is a crisis of meaning, in which each side
appeals to historical memory, the right to security, collective trauma and political
survival. At the same time, the Middle East is also a space where the crisis of
world order directly intersects with sustainable development, food security,
water access, energy routes and the governance of natural resources. Therefore,
the region should be interpreted not only as a geopolitical frontier, but also as
one of the most vulnerable zones of the global sustainability crisis.
Gaza has become one of the most dramatic symbols of this crisis. OCHA
noted in June 2026 that the humanitarian situation in Gaza remains fragile and
dangerous, with strikes continuing daily, most people remaining displaced,
access to safe water limited and the accumulation of solid waste in residential
areas increasing the risks of disease, especially among children (OCHA, 2026).
This description shows that the humanitarian crisis is inseparable from the
ecological crisis, because destroyed infrastructure, limited sanitation, solid waste
accumulation, damaged water systems and restricted humanitarian access create
a chain of risks for public health, environmental safety and long-term urban
recovery.
UNICEF reported that for 1.1 million children in Gaza, water remains a
daily uncertainty, 82% of households are water-unsafe and up to 70% are unable
to collect the minimum 6 liters. per person per day for drinking and cooking
(UNICEF, 2026). Such figures turn a humanitarian crisis into a crisis of the
political vocabulary itself, because without water, food, medicine and security,
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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the concept of law becomes too abstract. In this context, water is not only a
humanitarian need, but also a strategic resource and a central category of
sustainable development. When access to safe water becomes uncertain, the
crisis affects nutrition, hygiene, disease prevention, child protection, food
preparation and the very possibility of maintaining social life.
The peculiarity of the Middle East crisis is that it undermines the very
possibility of neutral language. Every concept, including security, occupation,
terrorism, self-defense, genocide, humanitarian access and the right to statehood,
becomes the subject of struggle. Therefore, geopolitical analysis here inevitably
turns philosophical. The question is not only who controls the territory, but also
whether human life retains political value in a situation where collective fears
become stronger than universal norms.
The Middle East also has global effects. Even local escalation can affect
transport routes, energy prices, food security, migration flows and the domestic
politics of states beyond the region. That is why this war cannot be described as
merely regional. It is one of the nerve centers of the world order. The
vulnerability of the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, the Strait of Hormuz and other
strategic routes demonstrates that conflicts in the region may influence shipping
costs, insurance prices, oil and gas transportation, fertilizer markets, food
imports and the stability of global supply chains. Thus, the Middle East connects
local suffering with the global economy, because insecurity in this region can
quickly transform into energy instability, food-price pressure and disruption of
maritime logistics.
Unlike the war in Ukraine, where the central issue is aggression against a
sovereign state, the Middle East demonstrates a different type of crisis, namely
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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the crisis of a protracted unresolved conflict, in which statehood, security, and
humanitarian rights have been mutually blocked for decades. It is this duration
that makes the region particularly explosive.
The philosophical core of the Middle East crisis lies in the conflict
between the right to security and the right to political existence. If one side
thinks of itself through the experience of surviving a historical catastrophe, and
the other side thinks of itself through the experience of prolonged deprivation of
statehood, then a political compromise requires not only diplomacy but also a
rethinking of memory. Without this, any truce remains a technical pause, not a
basis for peace (Table 5).
Table 5. The Middle East as a node of humanitarian and geopolitical crisis
Component
Manifestation
Consequence
Humanitarian crisis
Population displacement, water
shortages, disease risks and
destruction of infrastructure.
Deepens distrust toward the
international system for
protecting civilians.
Regional security
Involvement of Israel, Iran,
Palestinian structures, Lebanon,
Syria, Yemen and external actors.
Creates the risk of war
spreading beyond the original
theater.
Energy
Vulnerability of oil and gas
transportation routes.
Affects prices, shipping
insurance and global supply
chains.
International law
Mutual accusations of violations
of humanitarian norms.
Turns law into a field of
political struggle.
Philosophy of
violence
Combination of security, revenge,
trauma and identity.
Leads to the radicalization of
political imagination and the
dehumanization of the
opponent.
The Middle East also demonstrates the weakness of the global
humanitarian system. International organizations can document suffering,
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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provide access-based aid, warn of risks, and generate moral pressure. However,
they are not always able to change the behavior of parties to a conflict if that
behavior is supported by military necessity, domestic politics, or external
alliances. This weakness is especially dangerous when humanitarian collapse is
combined with environmental degradation, water scarcity, food insecurity and
energy vulnerability. In such conditions, the crisis becomes cumulative: the
longer violence continues, the more difficult it becomes to restore not only
peace, but also the material foundations of sustainable life.
Therefore, the Middle East should be understood as one of the most
concentrated examples of the transition toward a conflict-ridden world order. It
shows that modern conflicts are not limited to borders, armies and diplomatic
negotiations. They penetrate the systems that support everyday life, namely
water, food, energy, housing, health, waste management, transport and natural
resources. This is why the Middle East is central to the general argument of the
article: the crisis of world order is simultaneously a crisis of humanitarian
protection and a crisis of sustainable development.
6. Venezuelan direction and the presence of the United States of
America
The Venezuelan case is of particular importance for understanding the
contemporary world order because it combines several key themes. Among them
are energy, authoritarianism, migration, sanctions, regional security, external
intervention, and the question of the legitimacy of political transition. Unlike
Ukraine or the Middle East, Venezuela is not just a military case. It is a case of
controlled or forced transition, where external influence can be presented as
stabilization, but at the same time can be perceived as a violation of sovereignty.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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In 2026, American policy towards Venezuela became the subject of heated
debate. The Council on Foreign Relations described the confrontation between
the United States of America and Venezuela as a separate conflict case,
associated with military actions, the detention of Nicolás Maduro, and an attempt
at further political realignment (Council on Foreign Relations, 2026). The
Brookings Institution viewed the special operation of January 3, 2026, as an
event with direct implications for U.S. foreign policy, international law, and the
future of Venezuela (Brookings Institution, 2026).
Reuters reported that in December 2025, the White House had ordered
U.S. military forces to focus on enforcing the quarantine of Venezuelan oil,
indicating the use of economic pressure as a primary tool to influence Caracas.
In January 2026, Reuters also reported the seizure by U.S. forces of another
Venezuelan-related tanker in the Caribbean Sea, demonstrating the shift from
sanctions pressure to maritime control (Reuters, 2025; Reuters, 2026). Such
actions show that oil is not merely an economic commodity. It is a geopolitical
resource that can be used to pressure political regimes, influence maritime
routes, redistribute energy flows and reshape regional power relations.
Therefore, the Venezuelan direction illustrates how natural resources become
both the object and the instrument of conflict in a world order marked by
growing instability.
The philosophical issue in this case is the line between assisting a political
transition and external governance. If a regime is deemed authoritarian, corrupt,
or a threat to regional security, does this give a foreign state the right to intervene
forcefully? If not, what should be the limits of sanctions, diplomatic pressure,
and military presence? If so, who determines the criteria for the legitimacy of
such intervention? These questions acquire additional complexity when political
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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transition is connected with access to oil, gas, minerals, ports, refineries and
energy infrastructure. In such conditions, the language of democratization may
overlap with the material interests of external actors, while the sovereignty of a
weaker state becomes vulnerable to strategic calculations related to natural
resources.
Venezuela shows that the unipolar trajectory has not completely
disappeared. The United States, even in the world of a rising China, still retains
the ability to act as a key power actor in the Western Hemisphere. At the same
time, such action is no longer perceived as unquestionable. China, Russia, and
parts of Latin America and the Global South may interpret it as a manifestation
of neocolonial intervention or as confirmation of the double standards of
Western policy. This perception is strengthened by the fact that Venezuela is not
only a political case, but also a resource case. The country’s oil wealth, mineral
potential and geographical position in the Caribbean make it a strategic space
where questions of democracy, sovereignty, energy security and external
influence intersect.
That is why the Venezuelan case is important for the general theme of the
article. It shows that the new world order is not simply a transition from
American hegemony to Chinese dominance. Instead, a space is emerging where
several centers of power simultaneously claim the right to interpret legitimacy.
In such a space, a democratic transition can be both a real need for society and a
convenient justification for external control. The Venezuelan direction also
shows that sustainable development becomes extremely fragile when political
legitimacy, sanctions, energy dependence, migration and institutional collapse
are combined in one crisis. Under such conditions, the ability of society to
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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guarantee food access, employment, public services, environmental protection
and social stability is significantly weakened.
The energy aspect of the Venezuelan issue cannot be ignored either.
Venezuela has some of the largest oil reserves in the world, but its energy
infrastructure has been in a state of degradation for many years. That is why the
issue of political transition is inseparable from the issue of access to resources,
modernization of the oil and gas sector, the participation of foreign companies
and the redistribution of geo-economic influence in the Caribbean. At the same
time, political transition under external pressure does not guarantee sustainable
democratization. The historical experience of Latin America shows that regime
change without deep institutional reconstruction can recreate old problems in a
new political form. For Venezuela, the main question is not only who will lead
the state after the crisis, but also whether the new government will be able to
ensure legal certainty, social inclusion, control of corruption and the trust of
citizens.
7. Comparative assessment of crises and calculation of the
geopolitical tension index
To summarize the comparative analysis, an author's index of geopolitical
tension is proposed. Its goal is not mathematical absoluteness, but
systematization of qualitative analysis. The index is calculated according to five
criteria, each of which is rated on a scale from 0 to 5.
The first criterion is military intensity, which reflects the scale of the open
use of force, the frequency of hostilities and the risk of further escalation. The
second criterion is humanitarian severity, which takes into account civilian
casualties, population displacement, destruction of housing, lack of water, food,
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medical care and basic services. The third criterion is economic, energy and
trade impact. The fourth criterion is the erosion of international legal and
institutional norms. The fifth criterion is the level of global polarization.
The weights of the criteria are set taking into account the fact that the
military and humanitarian components are of the greatest importance for
assessing the severity of the crisis. Economic and energy impacts, as well as the
erosion of norms, have a slightly lower, but still high, weight. Polarization is
given the lowest weight, as it does not always directly imply greater
humanitarian burden, but it does affect the possibility of a diplomatic settlement.
The calculation formula is as follows. IGN = 0.25 × ВИ + 0.25 × ГТ +
0.20 × ЭЭТВ + 0.20 × ЭЭТВ + 0.10 × РГП. In this formula, IGN stands for the
geopolitical tension index, ВИ stands for military intensity, ГТ stands for
humanitarian severity, ЭЭТВ stands for economic, energy and trade impacts,
ЭЭТВ stands for the erosion of international legal norms, and РГП stands for the
level of global polarization (Table 6).
Table 6. Calculation of the authorial geopolitical tension index
Case
MI
HG
EETI
EIN
LGP
Index
China
2
1
5
3
5
2.85
Ukraine
5
4
4
5
5
4.55
Middle East
5
5
5
5
4
4.90
Venezuela
3
2
4
4
4
3.25
The results show that the Middle East has the highest integral index due to
the simultaneous combination of military intensity, humanitarian catastrophe,
energy significance, legal uncertainty and global resonance. The war in Ukraine
has a slightly lower, but also critical index, since it is directly related to the issue
of territorial integrity, European security and the future of international law.
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China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
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The Chinese case has a lower integral index, because it is not an open war
in the narrow sense, but its long-term structural impact is extremely high. It is
China that creates not an instantaneous, but a historically long-term tension
associated with the change in the center of the world economy and diplomacy.
Venezuela has an intermediate index. It is not equal in scale to the war in
Ukraine or the Middle East, but it is important because it raises questions about
the limits of external intervention, energy security and the renewal of the
practice of spheres of influence.
Discussions
The results allow us to formulate several important conclusions of a
debatable nature. First, the modern world order is not collapsing in one moment.
It is fragmenting. Its organizations continue to exist, but their capacity for
coercion, coordination, and moral authority is weakening. The UN, international
judicial mechanisms, humanitarian agencies, sanctions regimes, and multilateral
forums remain important, but increasingly they react to crises after they have
unfolded, rather than preventing them. This weakness is especially visible when
geopolitical crises affect not only security and law, but also sustainable
development, food systems, energy infrastructure, water access, maritime routes
and natural resources. In such conditions, international organizations are forced
to respond simultaneously to military escalation, humanitarian suffering,
economic shocks and ecological degradation, while their preventive capacity
remains limited.
Second, multipolarity does not necessarily mean a more just world.
Sometimes it just means more centers of coercion. If unipolarity created the
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development, food security, and natural resources
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problem of excessive power of one actor, then conflict polycentricity creates the
problem of competition between several actors, each with its own vision of
legitimacy. In addition, each center of power may promote its own model of
development, resource governance, energy security and food-system resilience.
Therefore, the transition toward a polycentric world order does not automatically
create more balanced development. It may also intensify competition for ports,
minerals, oil, gas, agricultural land, water resources and technological standards.
Third, China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Venezuela
demonstrate different forms of the same crisis. China shows a structural shift in
power. The war in Ukraine shows the crisis of legal deterrence of aggression.
The Middle East shows the crisis of humanitarian universality. Venezuela shows
the crisis of sovereignty under external pressure. At the same time, all four cases
show that the crisis of world order has a material dimension. China demonstrates
the strategic importance of infrastructure, supply chains and resource access. The
war in Ukraine demonstrates the vulnerability of grain markets, energy systems
and reconstruction capacity. The Middle East demonstrates the fragility of water
access, humanitarian supply and ecological security. Venezuela demonstrates the
dependence of political transition on oil, mineral resources and degraded energy
infrastructure.
Fourth, the humanitarian component has become central to geopolitics. In
the 19th and 20th centuries, great powers could speak mainly in the language of
territories and balances. In the 21st century, they still operate in the language of
force, but are forced to justify it in the language of humanitarian necessity,
democratic transition, protection of civilians, or the fight against terrorism. This
is where the moral tension arises. If humanitarian language is used selectively, it
loses its persuasiveness.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
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Fifth, the wars and crises of recent years return to the philosophical
question of the nature of power. Power in the modern world is not only military.
It is financial, technological, logistical, informational, legal, and symbolic. China
operates through infrastructure and credit. Russia operates through military
aggression. Israel and its adversaries operate through security and identity
narratives. The United States of America operates in Venezuela through a
combination of military presence, political pressure, and energy interests.
In this context, the concept of conflict polycentricity better reflects the
current reality than the simple concept of multipolarity. Multipolarity can mean a
certain balance between centers of power. Conflict polycentricity means that
there are several such centers, but they do not share a common vision of the
rules. They can interact, trade, negotiate, and at the same time undermine each
other through sanctions, information campaigns, military alliances, energy
pressure, or infrastructure dependencies.
Another important aspect is that modern crises have different temporal
depths. The Chinese challenge is long-term and structural. The war in Ukraine is
acute and at the same time long-term, because its consequences will go far
beyond the military phase. The Middle East has a historical duration that goes
back decades. Venezuela combines a short-term political operation with a long
history of resource dependence and regional intervention. Thus, the new order is
not formed by a single event, but by the superposition of different historical
rhythms. Finally, the modern world once again raises the question of
humanitarian universality. If civilians in different wars are politically evaluated
unequally, the international order loses its moral basis. If law is applied
selectively, it ceases to be law in the full sense and turns into an instrument of
political struggle. That is why future stability depends not only on the balance of
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 152
power, but also on the ability to restore trust in universal humanitarian standards.
However, this trust cannot be restored without protecting the material conditions
of life. Food, water, housing, energy, medical infrastructure, safe land, clean
environment and responsible natural-resource governance are not secondary
technical issues. They are central elements of human dignity and global stability.
Therefore, the transition toward a conflict-ridden world order should be
understood not only as a crisis of law and power, but also as a crisis of
sustainable development.
Conclusions
The study showed that the modern world order is not just in a state of
crisis, but in a state of deep structural transformation. A key feature of this
transformation is the transition from liberal unipolarity to conflict polycentricity,
in which several centers of power simultaneously claim the right to define rules,
interpret legitimacy, and shape political transitions. At the same time, this
transformation increasingly affects not only diplomacy, international law and
military security, but also sustainable development, food security, energy
stability, water access, environmental resilience and the governance of natural
resources.
China in this system appears as a long-term structural competitor to the
West. Its influence is based not only on economic scale, but also on the ability to
form infrastructural, financial, and diplomatic dependencies. The Chinese model
does not always offer open ideological confrontation, but it actually calls into
question the universality of the liberal international order. In addition, China’s
rise demonstrates that infrastructure, ports, logistics corridors, critical minerals,
energy projects, agricultural cooperation and technological standards can
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 153
become instruments of structural influence. Therefore, the Chinese vector should
be interpreted not only as a geopolitical challenge, but also as a factor that
reshapes the material foundations of global development and resource
governance.
The war in Ukraine showed that international law remains morally and
politically necessary, but its coercive ability is limited. This war has become a
test for Europe, the UN, sanctions regimes, international criminal responsibility,
and the very idea of territorial integrity. At the same time, it has led to large-
scale militarization, increased defense spending, and a rethinking of security as a
basic condition of political existence. However, the war has also shown that
aggression against a sovereign state can undermine global food security, destroy
agricultural and energy infrastructure, disrupt maritime logistics, damage land
resources and create long-term reconstruction challenges. Thus, the war in
Ukraine is not only a crisis of international law, but also a crisis of sustainable
development.
The Middle East has revealed the humanitarian limit of modern
geopolitics. Its crisis shows that the secure existence of some groups cannot be
sustainably built on the long-term humiliation, displacement, or dehumanization
of others. Water, housing, medical care, food, and child protection are no longer
secondary humanitarian issues, but central categories of the world order.
The Venezuelan trend demonstrates the return of the problem of external
interference in political transition. The presence of the United States of America
in the region can be interpreted as an attempt at stabilization, but at the same
time it opens up the risk of resuming the practice of spheres of influence, in
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 154
which the sovereignty of the weaker state depends on the strategic interests of
the stronger.
The author's index of geopolitical tension showed that the most
concentrated crisis of the modern order is the Middle East, followed by the war
in Ukraine, then the Venezuelan trend, and Chinese structural competition. At
the same time, China’s lower score does not mean less historical significance.
On the contrary, it is the Chinese vector that may have the most lasting
consequences, because it changes not only current security, but also the very
architecture of the world economy and diplomacy.
In conclusion, it should be noted that the 21st century. has brought neither
the final triumph of law nor a complete return to classical power politics. It has
formed a more complex world in which law, force, humanitarian morality,
technology, infrastructure and economic dependence operate simultaneously.
That is why the future world order will depend not only on who has more
resources, but also on who can offer a more convincing answer to the questions
of justice, security and human dignity in the age of conflict polycentricity.
Thus, the central conclusion of the study is that the transition toward a
conflict-ridden world order is simultaneously a geopolitical, legal, humanitarian
and sustainability crisis. China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East and the
Venezuelan direction of the United States of America demonstrate that modern
conflicts and rivalries increasingly penetrate the systems that sustain everyday
life: food, water, energy, infrastructure, land, logistics and natural resources.
Therefore, the stability of the future world order will depend not only on the
balance of power, but also on the ability of international actors to protect the
ecological and resource foundations of human survival.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 155
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Author contribution statement (CRediT):
Maj, Julian: Conceptualization, methodology, formal analysis, investigation,
writing – original draft, writing – review & editing.
Krąkowska, Ewa: Conceptualization, validation, resources, supervision, writing
– review & editing, project administration.
Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa
China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of
America as signs of the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources
Ceres. Revista de Ingeniería, Tecnología, Ciencias Agropecuarias y Desarrollo Sostenible
ISSN: 3101-4895 / Vigo, Provincia de Pontevedra – España
Año 1, Núm. 2, julio-diciembre, 2026
Página 157
Funding:
This study did not receive any specific grant from funding agencies in the public,
commercial, or not‑for‑profit sectors.
Declaration of conflict of interest and originality
In accordance with the Code of Ethics and Best Practices published in the Ceres
Journal, the authors, Maj, Julian and Krąkowska, Ewa declares to the Editorial
Committee that they have no situations that represent a real, potential, or evident
conflict of interest of an academic, financial, intellectual, or intellectual property
nature related to the content of the article: China, the war in Ukraine, the Middle
East, and the Venezuelan direction of the United States of America as signs of
the transition to a conflict-ridden world order and threats to sustainable
development, food security, and natural resources, in relation to its publication.
Likewise, they declare that the work is original, has not been published partially
or entirely in any other medium, and that no ideas, formulations, quotations, or
illustrations from various sources were used without clearly and strictly
mentioning their origin and without being properly referenced in the
corresponding bibliography. They consent to the Editorial Committee applying
any plagiarism detection system to verify its originality.
The authors declare that they did not use generative artificial intelligence tools
for writing texts or interpreting data in the preparation of this manuscript.